For years, the Gulf states—especially Qatar—have had an implied understanding that if they align closely with the United States, they would be secure. The recent bombing of Doha—which was an Israeli-targeted bombing of Hamas negotiators—has brought that assumption into question. The bombing happened a day after Israel appeared to accept a U.S. proposal for a Gaza ceasefire. While high-ranking Hamas leaders reportedly survived, six died—including the relative of a prominent Hamas leader. While Qatar labelled the attack “state terror,” Israeli media reported that the strike was “coordinated” with the United States; Washington disputed that claim. Shortly thereafter, the Gulf state convened an Arab-Islamic summit, indicating that its previously stable relationship with Washington no longer serves it as it once did.
Qatar’s New Calculus: Diplomacy as Defense
Instead of relying strictly on outside power, Qatar has historically developed a position as a mediator: from Afghanistan and Ukraine to Israeli-Palestinian conflicts. By “playing on both sides,” interacting with all sides—even unattractive ones in strained relationships with the U.S.—Qatar has been seeking to become indispensable. This plan was always tenuous. The bombing in Doha demonstrates just how tenuous. If alignment with the U.S. cannot protect Qatari soil, Qatar may eventually have to rethink who its real partners are and how to defend its sovereignty.
Shifting Sands: Regional Consequences
The implications of this incident could reach far beyond Doha. There is increasing discomfort within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): a shared anxiety that the security of one state can threaten the security of all. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have already expressed solidarity. The larger concern is the potential unraveling of the Abraham Accords, which relied on a set of unstated understandings—including Israeli discipline, justice, respect for Palestinian sovereignty, and stability. If those assumptions fall away, Gulf states could think twice about long-term agreements with Israel. For many this moment forces a rethink of alliances, leverage, and what it means to have “security” in a region that is becoming more volatile. click here for source
