The 2024 European Parliament elections produced a real earthquake in EU politics, presenting far-right parties with important political gains in major member states like France and Germany. The results will cause political shockwaves and make questions about the future of European integration, migration policies, and environmental projects. Here is an overview of the consequences:
1. Far-Right Parties Make Historic Gains
The largest takeaway was the increased support for nationalist and euro-sceptic parties.
France: Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) was the most pronounced, winning just over 30% of the vote – more than double the centrist coalition of President Macron. In addition, the scale of the defeat was so crushing that Macron had to call snap parliamentary elections in a desperate gamble to stem the tide of far-right momentum.
Germany: The Alternative for Germany (AfD) finished second, ahead of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD), which indicates a growing dissatisfaction with the ruling coalition.
Italy and beyond: Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy cemented its place as a global power broker, while far-right parties in the Netherlands, Spain and Austria made gains.
The results shows a wider trend toward the right in European Politics, fuelled by concerns over immigration, rising energy costs, economic instability and a backlash against green policies.
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Political Turmoil in France and Germany
The election aftermath has sparked immediate crises in two of the EU’s most important member states:
France in Crisis: Macron’s decision to dissolve parliament and hold new elections leaves the country in uncertainty. If the far-right wins a majority in parliament, there could be a cohabitation government that severely limits Macron’s power.
Germany’s Coalition in Jeopardy: Scholz’s ruling coalition took significant losses, with the AfD rising to hold the second largest party membership. Pressure to hold early elections is mounting, though Scholz has not resigned himself to this future—for now.
The instability in these central member states of the EU could undermine the region’s ability to respond to important concerns like Ukraine aide and climate policy.
What This Means for the EU’s Future
The emergence of the far-right will have significant consequences for European policymaking:
Migration Crackdown: Tighter borders and more opposition to EU-wide changes for asylum law.
Climate Policy Reversals: Far-right parties are openly against policies to support the green agenda, undoubtably, leading to the EU to miss its 2030 climate commitments.
Support for Ukraine at Risk: While there is support for continued military assistance to Ukraine from center parties, the far-right in France and Germany has been unwilling to support this type of military assistance.
The European Parliament will have to negotiate more often to find compromises given the fragmentation that will occur, and the centrists will either have to compromise with the right or be forced to broaden their alliances. One thing is for certain: the political map is changing, and the implications will last for many years for the EU. click here for the source
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