In a place where the rhythm of life is frequently determined by the rains, the prediction of above normal monsoon and rainfall for the year 2025 sounds like refreshing news to the nation. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted India will receive rainfall of over 105% of its long-term average rainfall in the upcoming monsoon season. This predicted monsoon forecast, not only provides relief to farmers also means good news for food prices, inflation and balancing any economic growth.
Why Monsoons Matter So Much to India
The monsoon rains of India are the lifeblood of the agriculture sector, especially for farmers who depend on rain-fed crops. More than half of India’s arable land depends on monsoon rains, and nearly 60% of the population works directly or indirectly with agriculture. The level of dependency is different in every region of the country. From the eastern part of the country with its paddy fields to sugarcane farms in western India, a timely and well-distributed monsoon is a determining factor between a bumper crop and a total crop failure. Multiple rainfall is also critical to limiting the level of dependence of expensive irrigation systems and ground water. For small and marginal farmers, irrigation systems, and ground water access are often unfeasible outcomes, contributing to reduced crop yield and increased input costs. Together these challenges impact productivity.
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What Does 105% Rainfall Mean?
When the IMD says India will receive 105% of its long-term average rainfall, it means it will receive rainfall that is 5% more than India’s 50-year average of 87 cm (two climatological periods from 1971–2020). Any annual average rainfall between 96% and 104% is “normal,” so this is considered “above-normal.”
Economic Implications: More Than Just Farming
The positive effects of a prosperous monsoon extend beyond agriculture. There is, first, a good crop that could keep the food supply steady and abundant. This eases the inflation of food prices, an indicator that has worried consumers and policy-makers in the last few years. Reduced food price inflation is good news for both urban and rural consumers as well as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in meeting its inflation mandate. Increased income from agriculture also leads to higher rural incomes, which helps drive rural consumption, a major driver of activity in the Indian economy. Sectors such as fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) tractor manufacturing, and two-wheelers depend on rural consumption primarily driven by rural incomes.Lastly, a good monsoon reduces the burden on the government, sometimes leading to poor fiscal space. For example, identifiably in a drought year, the government has to extend subsidies or loan waivers as well as extend food imports, which affects the fiscal balance. A healthy monsoon could help avoid fiscal burdens.
Climate Caution Still Needed
Even if the outlook is positive, we must proceed with caution. Climate change makes our weather patterns less predictable. There are times when we have a good national average for rainfall and the distribution is very uneven – some areas suffer flooding while others remain dry.So while a positive above-average forecast is still worth paying attention to, we have to be cautious of the spatial and timing distribution of the rainfall within the growing season. Most producers will still have difficulty if the rain comes too early, too late, or come as a mass of rainfall rather than a gentle rain fall.Therefore, we need to continue with our investments in water conservation, smart irrigation, crop insurance, and reliable accurate localized forecasts, so that we can truly benefit from a good monsoon.
