Iran is at a critical time in history. With the health of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei deteriorating, there has been increased interest on the potential successor. It has been noted that the second son of Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei, may play an integral role in the leadership succession. This state of affairs brings up many pertinent issues with regard to the theocratic state of Iran, the Khamenei family and changes that may happen in Iran and the Middle East region as a whole.
The Health Crisis of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s and Its Implications
There are increasing reports with regard to the declining health of the supreme leader of Islamic Republic of Iran Ali Khamenei. Eighteen months has passed since Ali Khamenei undertook strains for managing Iranian political, religious, and military arenas as head of state. Age is becoming a factor, the 85-year-old Khamenei is facing health concerns. The last couple of months have seen some attention focused on his declining health, fuelling discussions about his fitness for holding the reins of power in Iran.
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The death or the extended absence of Khamenei will create a power vacuum in the hierarchical structure in Iran. \In Iran, the Supreme Leader is the highest authority who not only leads military and judicial branches but is also responsible for the implementation of several key foreign policy policies. The shift to a different leader will influence the politics of Iran as well as the international country’s relations.
Who is Mojtaba Khamenei?
Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of the Ali Khamenei, is the son who is too most probable to come to power among possible successors of Ali Khamenei; hence, he seems to be the most capable of succeeding Ali Khamenei. Mojtaba, who is 53 years old, has covertly expanded his influence over the years. Although he has been relatively quiet in public, the combination of him being his father’s son and being politically active puts him in the picture of a possible Supreme Leader position.
His function has been increasing within the Iranian political system and most recently the reaching within the power structure of the regime. Still, many regard him as a consummate behind-the-scenes player who was influential in some important matters. Massive shifts towards his emergence have come to him from several groups in the military and indeed the clerical structure as well.
As Mojtaba’s leadership is likely to be acceptable to a majority of the members of the establishment, his authority has a lot to contend with from the various opposing forces within Iran’s political enviroment. Some of the opponents argue that his anticipated rise to power would mean that Iran would still be a dynastic rule which many sections of the Iranian society would be frowning upon. Despite this, however, chances for Mojtaba appear strong especially in light of the fact that he is husband to the military axis of Iran and most key elements within the regime owe him their loyalty.
Conflict between Politics and Religion
Successorship is not only a matter of Khamenei’s family alone. There are complex maneuvers of political forces of different groups in Iran. The position of the Supreme Leader is political but is also a religious one. The leaders of Iran are both political and clerical so the new leader has to consider these divisions.
Mojtaba Khamenei’s ascension might be able to produce resistance from certain segments of the clerics that are of the Assembly of Experts that selects the Supreme Leader. This group consists of the clerics who appoint themselves to be the top positions in the government and would therefore have a reason to support a more conventional kind of a cleric with such a defining role.
Protests and dissent have multiplied in the country, as many are not happy with the leadership and the governance by Ali Khamenei. This kind of unrest may make the so-called Mojtaba’s road to the chair of power more difficult by making it hard for him to completely win the sympathies of the general public.
The global tone of the new Supreme Leader and the implications of this change to the US and allies.
The change in Iran’s authority and especially the new leadership will create additional complications in the Middle East and also on global politics. The country’s foreign policy that has been for a long time strategically designed by Ali Khamenei will be expected to shift if a new supreme leader were to arise. If Mojtaba Khamenei properly rose to power, he would still be hostile to the west especially the united states while building further alliances with russia and Hezbollah.
Nevertheless, there is also the likelihood of Mojtaba taking a more practical route in the conduct of foreign relations. The change of the present leadership could in fact bring in the lost opportunities of diplomacy but there is a likelihood that it will also depend on Mojtaba’s resolution and approach towards the situation.
. The successor of Khamenei should find a solution to the existing crises in Syria, Iraq and Yemen where Iran has been a direct party to those crises. .
What Does This Mean for Iran’s Future?
The succession crisis in Iran certainly goes beyond politics and it is the one that has the potential to change history. As Ali Khamenei’s age advances, the country sees a prospect without a Supreme Leader which cannot be for a coherent nation. The scenarios faced after the transition to Mojtaba Khamenei may either consolidate the existing order or change it radically if Khamenei can manipulate the system effectively.
Basically, the Iranian future lies in the hands of its leaders in how best they can handle situations like the public opposition as well as along faction lines. The entire power change is going to be a complex task and its fruits will determine the direction in which the country heads over the coming decades.
Conclusion
Everyone’s attention now shifts to Mojtaba Khamenei who is the current supreme leader’s second son as Iran is on the verge of a changing leadership. Because of his increasing popularity and critical faction backing, he is perceived to be the most appropriate candidate. Yet rivalry, internal and external, dominates the competitive environment in which to establish authority. As of now, Iranian prospects in terms of politics appear to be very inconclusive with the Khamenei family ruling dynasty on its final edge being closely watched by the international regimes. Click here for the source
